Betting on longshots in NFL futures can be exciting and offer greater rewards
Betting on longshots in NFL futures can be tempting, especially with the potential for high payouts. A small wager on a team with long odds to win the Super Bowl or a player with low chances of earning an MVP award can lead to massive returns. However, the risks involved often outweigh the rewards, making these bets more difficult to win than they might seem.
One of the biggest challenges with longshot bets is the unpredictability of an NFL season. Injuries, coaching changes, and unexpected team performances can derail even the most promising underdogs. A team projected to make a surprising playoff run might lose key players early in the season, significantly reducing their chances of winning. Similarly, a player with long MVP odds could start strong but struggle with injuries or inconsistency as the season progresses.
Another issue with betting on longshots is the sharp competition in the league. The NFL is structured to create balance, with salary caps and draft orders designed to prevent long-term dominance by any one team. While this can sometimes allow unexpected teams to rise, it also makes it difficult for true underdogs to sustain success over an entire season. Betting markets often reflect this reality, setting long odds for a reason.
Additionally, sportsbooks build a high house edge into futures bets, particularly for teams or players with long odds. This means that while a longshot bet might seem like it offers great value, the probability of winning is often lower than the odds suggest. Unlike single-game bets, futures wagers also tie up money for an extended period, limiting the ability to place other bets or adjust strategies as the season unfolds.
